How a tsunami forms

First, a tsunami, which literally translates to “harbor wave” in Japanese, is a series of waves that inundate coastlines. Tsunamis are generated by an upward lift of waterway bottoms, including oceans and regions like the Puget Sound, via a powerful earthquake, landslide, or even an undersea volcanic eruption. The Tonga tsunami in January 2022 was the result of a strong undersea volcanic eruption that sent tsunami waves across the entire Pacific Ocean basin.

Most tsunamis, though, are generated by powerful undersea earthquakes where the seabed abruptly rises, displacing the water above it. The March 2011 Japan Tohoku earthquake was such a substantial uplift of the seafloor that it generated tsunami waves across the entire Pacific Ocean, including the Washington coast. Fortunately, most of the energy was focused well south of Washington. The outer coastline had tsunami waves of under three feet.

The March 2011 Tohoku earthquake was the result of a subduction zone, where the Pacific plate moves under the Honshu plate. This movement creates building pressure between the two geologic plates until the pressure gives, resulting in a usually large earthquake. In the case of this earthquake, it was measured to be a 9.1 magnitude quake, the fourth strongest in recorded history.

Such a subduction zone resides about 100 miles off the Pacific Northwest coast, stretching from off Northern Vancouver Island south to off Northern California’s Cape Mendocino. This subduction zone is called the Cascadia Subduction Zone. The last time this earthquake zone gave way was on January 26, 1700, when an estimated 9.0 magnitude quake produced tsunami waves across the Pacific Ocean basin. Local tribal legends and Japanese tsunami history reflect this event.

Geologists indicate that the history of the Cascadian Subduction Zone generates a strong earthquake about every 300-500 years. We have now entered that time window.

So, can a tsunami occur in the Puget Sound region? A powerful Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake would produce tsunami waves, not only across the Pacific Ocean basin, but those tsunami waves would work their way into the Puget Sound through the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

What NOAA tsunami simulations have revealed

Simulations created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Pacific Environmental Lab and the showed tsunamis in interior waters reached 10 feet or more along coastlines, particularly in tight or narrow waterways like the Hood Canal, Tacoma’s Commencement Bay, Seattle’s Harbor Island or Bellingham Bay.

Not only can a Cascadia earthquake event generate tsunamis in the inland waters of Western Washington, but so can local earthquake faults such as the Tacoma Fault, the Seattle Fault, and the South Whidbey Island Fault. The has a suite of local earthquake fault simulations of tsunamis involving these earthquake sources. The Seattle Fault simulation is based on a strong earthquake that occurred approximately 1,100 years ago.

Recent smaller earthquakes in and around Western Washington over the last few months served as a key reminder that this region is earthquake country. In fact, Washington is the second-most threatened state in the nation, trailing only California.

The Great Shakeout preparation

Earthquakes are no-notice events. Each year, Washington participates in the earthquake drill in mid-October. The drill offers the opportunity to practice readiness for an earthquake at any time of day. Schools use this event as their October monthly emergency drill.

It is crucial to consider earthquake safety actions wherever you may be when a quake strikes. Communication with loved ones and work staff is quite important. Power and phone systems will likely be out of service in the wake of an earthquake.

Having a backup communication plan can be critical. The Great ShakeOut drill offers the chance to practice your backup communication plan. Know in advance how and who to reach in case the phone and power systems go offline.

Being ready for an earthquake and a potential tsunami, and knowing what to do when such an event unfolds, can help save the lives of loved ones.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���. Read more of his stories��here.

Thanks to relatively clear skies over the Pacific Northwest, the best time to potentially see the aurora borealis will be between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m.

Shawn Dahl of the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center happened to give a planned space weather presentation earlier this week at the , which runs through Thursday. He highlighted the latest burst of energy from the sun that would reach our planet from Wednesday into Thursday, which could produce an aurora borealis visible across much of Canada and the northern tier of the U.S.

Tips for viewing the northern lights

The best opportunity to view the potential aurora borealis is away from city lights in a much darker environment. The moon is slated to rise in the southeastern sky shortly after 12:30 a.m. and will add some light to the night sky.

If you see the northern lights, take a picture and share it with us on MyNorthwest’s photo page.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���. Read more of his stories here.

Imagine water in a stream flowing around a large rock. The water wraps around the rock and meets on the other side. On a larger scale, this is similar to what happens with westerly air flowing off the Pacific. The air flows around the Olympic Mountains and converges just east of them.

South Snohomish County is ground zero for the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. The air flows around the Olympics through the Strait of Juan de Fuca on the north side and the Chehalis Gap on the south side. As the air converges, it rises, producing clouds and often rain.

If it’s cold enough, snow can even fall—as it did on April 18, 2008, when parts of southern Snohomish County saw up to 10 inches of snow. Thunderstorms can also develop. When there’s frequent, stronger flow through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the convergence zone can shift southward into King County.

The Puget Sound Convergence Zone can occur at any time of the year, but it happens most frequently in the spring. Ironically, areas to the north and south of the convergence zone often experience breaks in the cloud cover and periods of sunshine. For example, the San Juan Islands and Skagit County to the north and Renton to Tacoma to the south often have clear skies.

Spring marks peak rainbow season in Puget Sound

Spring also marks the peak of the North Sound’s rainbow season. While rainbows can occur year-round, the combination of spring showers and a higher sun angle results in more frequent rainbows during this season.

Rainbows are formed when sunlight interacts with rain or water droplets suspended in the air. Sunlight enters a droplet, slowing and bending the light as it passes from air to denser water. The light reflects off the inside of each droplet, breaking into its different colors. As the light exits the droplet, it forms a rainbow.

Sunlight consists of a spectrum of colors, each with a different wavelength. Violet has the shortest wavelength and bends the most, while red has the longest wavelength and bends the least. When you see a rainbow, the light reflecting back to you, with the sun at your back, will show all the colors between violet and red, with violet on the bottom and red on top.

If you spot a rainbow, take a picture, and share it with us on MyNorthwest’s photo page.

The Northwest Avalanche Center released its latest mountain snow depth statistics as of April 1. In the Olympic Peninsula, Hurricane Ridge had 76 inches of snow on the ground, which is close to 75 percent of the average. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the water in that snowpack was near 95 percent of the normal.

The snowpack in the Cascades varied quite a bit. Mount Baker reported 148 inches of snow, or close to 90 percent of the average, but the water in that snow was only 74 percent of normal.

The central Cascades found Stevens Pass with six feet of snow and Snoqualmie Pass with five feet, both just shy of 75 percent of the average water equivalent.

The southern Cascades fared much better for snowfall. Crystal Mountain had seven feet of snow on the ground, close to 110 percent of normal. Paradise on Mount Rainier had 164 inches, and White Pass had 56 inches, both 95 percent of the average. The water equivalent in this region’s snowpack was between 80 and 110 percent of normal.

With mountain snowpack seasons below average two years in a row, greater strain will be placed on water supplies for the upcoming summer and fall.

Drought status

According to the latest Drought Monitor, the Cascades and much of the Puget Sound region are abnormally dry or in moderate drought status. In the Puget Sound area, most locations, including Olympia and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), are about three to five inches below average for the year thus far, despite March being wetter than normal.

The coastal region is also drier than normal. Hoquiam is about four inches below average for the year, while Forks is nearly a whopping 13 inches below average.

The state of Washington has not declared a drought emergency at this point, yet the situation is being closely monitored. By state law, a drought emergency is when a lower-than-average precipitation and water supply condition threshold is reached.

For a part of the state to be considered in a drought, that area must be below or projected to be below 75% of normal. This water shortage is likely to create undue water supply stress.

Unless the remainder of spring is cool and wet, mountain snowpack will be depleted much earlier than usual, leaving a smaller water supply for agriculture, power generation, fish, and water consumption later this year.

Spring weather outlook

The latest outlooks for the rest of this month fail to point toward cool or wet conditions.

Starting later this week, temperatures are expected to climb above average, with some locations cracking the 70-degree mark.

By Sunday and into next week, rain is forecast to return with mild temperatures and relatively high mountain snow levels.

This trend is expected to continue for much of the rest of the month.

Wildfire and smoke concerns

A less-than-average mountain snowpack usually means it melts off sooner than typical. What is called ‘green-up’ follows as ground vegetation grows. By mid-summer however, that vegetation dries out, setting up an environment more conducive to wildfires.

In 2023, Western Washington had more fire starts than Eastern Washington for the first time ever, according to the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. Since 2017, the Puget Sound region has experienced poor air quality from wildfire smoke in six of the last eight summers.

The weather in April and May could help adjust the outcome of this dry situation, but the upcoming summer and fall are pointing towards concern as low water supply, wildfires, and wildfire smoke are on the horizon once again.

Monday, March 31, is the last day you can drive with studded tires in Washington.

Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) says studded tires damage pavement, costing taxpayers additional road repair and maintenance costs.

According to , studded tires lead to up to $29 million in damages for state-owned roads in Washington each winter, with additional costs to city and county roads.

For future winters, WSDOT is urging drivers to consider other traction options, such as non-studded, winter-tread tires. These are different from all-season tires, and do not cause damage to roadways.

No extensions granted, avoid fines

For those who still need to remove the studs from their tires, it is recommended to plan ahead. Tire shops are expected to have long lines and wait times.�� Many tire shop managers highly suggest getting an appointment in advance to reduce the wait time.

Starting at midnight on Tuesday, April 1, all drivers with studded tires can face a fine of $137. This includes visitors with out-of-state tags.

No extension to this law is expected to be planned for this year. Crews will continue to monitor mountain passes, roads, and weather forecasts in order to quickly clear any late-season snow or ice.

Before hitting the road, be sure to check road conditions so ‘you know before you go’ by visiting the WSDOT or app.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

As the calendar finishes the month, more cool showery weather is in store Monday spilling over into early April.

Another upper level low has replaced the one that resided off the coast for much of last week. This weather system will again circulate a cool unsettled air mass onshore for more spring showers along with some sunbreaks Monday into Wednesday.

Cool temperatures in store for western Washington

High temperatures will feel rather cool again, only reaching the 50 to 55-degree range, while lows will bottom out in the mid-30s to lower 40s. The average high temperature for around the first of April is in the mid-50s.

The offshore upper low is forecast to slowly drift into Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday, taking the cool, showery weather pattern with it by Thursday. As the end of the week approaches, higher pressure aloft is forecast to build over the Pacific Northwest, bringing drier and warmer weather.

More sunshine is anticipated to emerge Thursday, and by Friday, considerable sunshine will bathe the region. High temperatures on Friday will feel more spring-like, climbing to near or above 60 degrees—just in time for the Seattle Mariners’ next home stand to begin against division rival the Houston Astros.

In the mountains, more rain and snow showers are expected through Wednesday, with the snow level hovering around 2,500 to 3,000 feet. A few more inches of fresh snow are forecast. And a reminder: the deadline to remove studded tires is Monday, March 31st.

March was first month with above average rainfall

March will finish with above-average rainfall for the first time this year. Through Saturday, SEA had already exceeded the monthly average of 4.17 inches, recording 5.07 inches. After being close to 7 inches behind normal for the year earlier this month, the rain deficit has shrunk to around 3 inches.

Olympia, through Saturday, had received 5.73 inches of rain so far this month. The monthly average is 5.68 inches, but for the year, it remains about 5 inches below normal.

Bellingham made up a great deal of ground this month, rainfall-wise. The rain total so far is just over 5 inches, and for the year, it’s now just over average. Coastal areas have also been wet this month, but still remain between about 4 to 12 inches behind average for the year.

With spring showers to finish the month, March looks like it will go out like a lion after coming in like a lamb. Yet later this week, it will feel more like spring with sunshine and warmer temperatures expected to extend into the coming weekend.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

On Wednesday around 3 p.m., the National Weather Service issued for Clark, Lewis, Thurston, Cowlitz, Pierce, King, and Skamania counties until 9 p.m.

This kind of weather is unusual for Western Washington and is reminiscent of a Midwest or Plains state weather pattern that can produce severe weather. With an upper-level low forecast to set up camp off the Pacific Northwest coast, the southerly flow wind along its east flank will send warm, moist, and unstable air into the region, setting up the environment for these active thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm recipe

As taught in Skywarn Weather Spotter and other weather courses, thunderstorms need three primary ingredients – moisture, an unstable air mass, and lift.

With lots of recent rain and muggy air, moisture can be expected. Late March temperatures are above average, cracking the 70-degree mark, and much cooler air is a part of the offshore upper-level low, leading to the possibility of air mass becoming unstable. This makes it easy for the warm, moist surface air to rise, creating clouds and storms.

The upper-level low itself will provide the lift, given the southerly flow aloft on its eastern perimeter. Adding this all together, our three thunderstorm ingredients will be able to make the recipe for an active thunderstorm episode late Wednesday.

As previously mentioned, the thunderstorms will involve plenty of lightning, heavy rainfall, and downpours.

Safety actions

Late Wednesday afternoon and evening will be a period to keep an eye on the sky,�� monitoring weather conditions through the Doppler weather radar on websites and weather apps. If severe weather approaches, move indoors.

The phrase – When thunder roars, go indoors – applies here.

There has not been a lightning fatality in the state since 1996 – let’s keep it that way.

If travel is essential, be aware that heavy downpours can result in lots of water on roadways and even the possibility of local flash flooding. Any strong damaging winds can blow down trees and create local power outages.

Tornadoes cannot be ruled out

Nearly all tornadoes are born from thunderstorms. Washington averages about two to three tornadoes per year. This weather pattern hosts the environment and potential to produce tornadoes, despite its rarity for this region. The chances of a tornado are quite low, yet the threat cannot be ruled out. Here are some helpful videos you can watch to prepare for a tornado event:

Previous storms

The last time this region had a similar weather pattern was on May 4, 2017, near Lacey, Washington. A severe thunderstorm struck the area, flooding streets, creating hundreds of lightning strikes — leading to strong winds blowing down trees and knocking out power.

Looking at the rest of the week

By the end of the week, the severe weather threat will be over. The upper-level low is expected to remain off the coast and send cooler conditions onshore with frequent showers Thursday and Friday before tapering off this weekend. High temperatures will cool back down into the 50s.

Wednesday’s weather pattern is one to pay a great deal of attention to, given how rarely it occurs in Western Washington. Keep an eye to the sky, and be prepared to take action in case threatening weather approaches.

But for allergy sufferers, spring means that allergy season is here. Sniffles, runny noses, and red, itchy eyes are among the symptoms.

If it seems allergy season is starting earlier and earlier, you would be correct. Studies have shown that since the 1950s, summer has been three weeks longer worldwide, with the fall, winter and spring seasons all shorter in length.

Allergy offenders

Early in the allergy season, it is the trees that are the greatest offender as they awaken from their winter slumber. Leaves and blossoms – oh, those blossoms are sprouting, sending their pollen into the air and finding noses. The University of Washington cherry trees are due to open blossoms soon. Once they blossom, though, they will be picturesque, but for those with allergies, a nightmare.

The tree pollen season is just getting underway. At this time, the greatest offending trees include hazelnut and birch trees. Cedar and juniper are also getting started. Cottonwood, Poplar, Alder, Willow, and Maple trees are next at bat. Later in April and May, Sycamore, Ash, and Oak trees will contribute their own pollen.

With longer days, more sunshine, and warmer weather, grasses and weeds will then replace tree pollen and offer their own pollen later this spring and heading into summer.

The Western Washington advantage

Even though many suffer allergies during spring and summer, Western Washington has a significant advantage when it comes to seasonal allergies – rain. Rain washes away pollen in the air, offering great relief to allergy sufferers.

The 2024 Asthma and Allergy Foundation Report reviewed data from 100 U.S. cities and the Seattle area was ranked 88th of all those cities. In fact, the top 20 cities were all from the central plains to the eastern seaboard. The worst city in the report was Wichita, KS, followed by Virginia Beach, VA.

When Western Washington weather gets warmer and drier, pollen counts rise. The posts daily pollen counts, including the most common offending pollen contributors. The next rainy or even windy day will reduce pollen in the air and offer allergy relief.

Dr. Jan Agosti, an infectious disease specialist affiliated with the University of Washington Medicine, offered an idea for allergy sufferers when pollen counts rise.

“Face masks,” she said. “It’s now socially acceptable to wear them, and while high-filtered masks are best, even plain old cloth ones help. Sunglasses and eyeglasses help, too. Anything that keeps it out of your nose and eyes.”

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

Monday’s weather will involve Sunday’s rain tapering off by nightfall. High temperatures will feel mild – rising into the 50s with a few locations topping 60 degrees.

Upper level high pressure building over Western Washington Tuesday promises more sunshine and the warmest temperatures of the year thus far, and the warmest since mid-October last year. High temperatures are expected to warm well into the 60s with some places cracking the 70 degree mark.

The first full week of spring also means daylight hours continue to get longer. The rise to 12 hours of daylight occurred last week, and this week, Wednesday will have the first 730 PM sunset of the year.

Record high temperatures Tuesday, but threat of thunderstorms the next day

The warm up on Tuesday will likely produce some record daily high temperatures.

For instance, the record high for March 25th at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) is 64 degrees set in 1969. Olympia’s record high is 67 also established in 1969 while Bellingham’s record high for the date is 62 set in 1960.

But there is also the threat of thunderstorms on Wednesdays

An upper level low is forecast to set up just off the coast Wednesday and create an environment of unstable air for a growing threat of showers and even thunderstorms. Spring is the primary thunderstorm season in Western Washington and the weather into Wednesday night may be enlightening (pun intended). Remember – when thunder roars, go indoors.

The offshore upper level low looks like it will park itself there the rest of the week. Thursday and Friday will feel much cooler with high temperatures dropping back down into the 50s with on again, off again showers.

Seattle Mariner’s season opener and series

This soggy weather pattern promises the Seattle Mariner’s home opener against the Oakland A’s on Thursday will likely have the roof extended over the stadium. The showery weather is also expected to continue into the coming weekend through the 4-game home opening series.

Given the much warmer air moving into the region, the week is expected to start with snow levels well above the mountain pass highways. Snow levels will range from 7000 to 8500 feet through Wednesday. Then cooler air involved with the offshore upper low is forecast to drop snow levels down to around 4000 feet on Thursday and 3000 feet Friday.

A reminder for those with studded tires, the deadline to remove them is the end of this month – March 31st. Tire stores are likely to get busy through this weekend – make appointments soon.

It was a Saturday morning. The sun was peeking through the clouds, offering a pleasant early spring day. The North Fork of the Stillaguamish River was receding in the wake of three days of dry weather following a wet winter.

Then, just past 10:30 a.m. that morning, a large segment of a hillside gave way, surging across the valley just east of Oso in less than 60 seconds, sweeping away everything in its path — including the Steelhead neighborhood.

It remains unclear what triggered the massive slide. Was it the river nibbling at the foot of the hillside? Was it the weight of all the winter rainfall soaked into the hillside? Were other factors involved? Geologically, going back centuries, similar landslides had occurred in the valley.

The landslide temporarily blocked the river. Water in the river backed up, flooding homes just upstream of the slide area.

As the day wore on, concerns about the landslide-blocked river steadily rose, raising theories about the blockage suddenly giving way and producing a flash flood-like surge of water downstream.

There were some authorities and downstream communities who felt it was imperative to evacuate from the threat of flash flooding in Arlington and downstream into Stanwood, adversely impacting the Interstate-5 (I-5) bridge over the Stillaguamish River.

Another look at Oso landslide

At the time, I was the Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) in Seattle, a key liaison position with the emergency management community. Joining our NWS Seattle team on duty that day, we collaborated with the NWS River Forecast Center (RFC) in Portland on what are called dam break scenarios.

The RFC conducted several scenarios throughout the day as the situation evolved and found that when water managed to create a gap in the landslide blockage, the threat of downstream flash flooding was quite low.

The emergency manager for Snohomish County at the time, John Pennington, called late that afternoon to ask whether he should authorize activating the Emergency Alert System (EAS) to evacuate downstream communities and close the I-5 bridge as a result of the potential for flash flooding. Given the NWS information collected throughout the day, he was advised of the dam break scenario results and chose not to activate EAS.

That decision turned out to be wise. Late in the day, water in the river did manage to create and flow smoothly through a gap in the landslide debris, easing fears of flash flooding downstream.

During the initial response and 6-week recovery efforts at the scene, spring showers and even a few thunderstorms hampered crews at work. Yet, response crews and their support teams did a monumental job with the recovery of those lost.

In September of that year, rebuilding State Route 530 through the devastated area was completed and fully reopened, and a roadside memorial was put in place near the landslide site.

Last year, on the 10th anniversary of the tragic event, a permanent memorial was dedicated, commemorating the 43 victims. The memorial has exhibits for visitors that honor the victims, survivors, and those who responded to the catastrophic event, serving to educate visitors about the disaster.

On Saturday, March 22, let’s remember and honor those who lost their lives 11 years ago.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

The calendar may say spring has arrived, yet lingering winter-like weather is expected through this weekend. Then, some spring-like warmer weather is forecast to finally make an appearance toward the middle of next week.

Western Washington’s weekend forecast

One Pacific weather system will sweep through Western Washington Friday, with another round of rain, mountain snow and blustery winds up to 35 mph. Showers Friday night are expected to taper off Saturday with some sunbreaks, making this half of the weekend by far the better day for outdoor activities.

By Sunday, a following Pacific weather system will spread rain onshore with more mountain snow to accumulate.

Temperatures this weekend will remain about 5 degrees or so cooler than mid-March averages. Highs are anticipated to nudge a bit above 50 degrees, while lows will be in the lower to mid-40s.

The mountains

The cooler-than-average weather translates to mountain snow levels near or below all the mountain highway passes through the weekend. Periods of snow are expected, with snow levels hovering between 2000 and 3000 feet. Heavier snow amounts can be anticipated Friday night into early Saturday and again Sunday, with snow levels rising to near 5000 feet by the evening.

Another one to two feet of new snow is expected, with up to 3 feet in the higher terrain, including the volcanoes. Motorists driving across Cascade pass highways should again be prepared for winter weather driving conditions.

The fresh new snow will continue to inch the overall mountain snowpack closer to average. The usual peak of the mountain snowpack occurs around April 1st. Thanks to the accumulating snow from the past week or so, snow depths are now in the 70 to 100% of average for this time of year. The water within the snowpack is 72 to 97% of normal.

Spring-like weather next week

The rainfall and mountain snow are expected to taper off Monday as higher pressure aloft builds toward the Pacific Northwest. This weather pattern will also bring warmer air into the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday offer more sunshine and high temperatures climbing into the 60s, likely the warmest so far this year and the warmest since mid-October.

Unfortunately, if longer-range weather guidance is correct, the spring-like weather will be short-lived as a return to wetter weather resumes later next week. Yet, until then, the spring-like weather will offer some relief from the recent cool, damp weather.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

The spring equinox is on Thursday, March 20, officially at 2:01 a.m. Pacific Time and highlights the start of the spring season. Given the Earth’s 23.5 degree tilt as it rotates around the sun annually, that moment early Thursday morning will be when the sun’s direct rays cross the equator from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere.

Since the winter solstice back in late December, each day has been getting longer. This is the peak time of year when each day is gaining about 3 and a half minutes. The length of each day just crossed 12 hours of daylight earlier this week. This pace will now gradually slow as the calendar rolls into April and May, reaching the summer solstice in late June with close to 16 hours of daylight.

More from MyNorthwest: WSDOT could prevent snow-related crashes at the Snoqualmie Pass

This weekend’s weather following spring equinox

We may be waving goodbye to winter, but winter weather is not going away through this weekend. A series of Pacific weather systems driven by a 150 mph westerly jet stream across the North Pacific will maintain rain and cool temperatures with mountain snow through Sunday. The jet stream is a ribbon of strong winds at an altitude around where jets fly at cruising altitude – about 30,000 feet or so.

Showers are expected to taper off Monday as higher pressure aloft builds toward the Pacific Northwest. Tuesday looks to offer some spring-like weather with sunshine and warmer temperatures.

The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport hit 63 degrees on February 27 and Tuesday’s high temperature will likely top that, reaching into the mid or perhaps upper 60s – the warmest so far this year.

The latest weather outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center heading into April indicates we will see near average temperatures with the odds tipped toward wetter than normal conditions.

As the calendar flips to spring on Thursday, a taste of springlike weather is set to arrive early next week.

More from MyNorthwest: Flying out this week? Plan on late night delays to Sea-Tac Airport

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

Lingering showers with some sun breaks will be on deck Monday. Tuesday is expected to be the driest day of the week as higher pressure aloft quickly moves across the region.

The next in a series of Pacific weather systems will spread rain onshore Wednesday. Showers and sun breaks will follow on Thursday before yet another weather system moves ashore for more rain Friday.

Temperatures this week will run approximately 5 degrees cooler than mid-March averages. Highs across much of Western Washington will struggle to top 50 degrees, while lows are forecast to range from the 30s to lower 40s. The average high temperature this week is in the mid-50s.

More on MyNorthwest: WSDOT could prevent snow-related crashes at the Snoqualmie Pass

The Mountains

The cooler-than-average temperatures mean mountain snow levels will be below the passes. Periods of snow are expected through the week above between 1,500 and 2,500 feet. Heavier snow amounts can be anticipated Wednesday and Friday, with totals through the week ranging from 1-2 feet. Motorists driving across Cascade Pass highways should be prepared for winter weather driving conditions.

The additional mountain snow will continue to help cut into the snow deficit. Recent snows have helped boost the snowpack, now ranging from 75-100% of average, and the water in the snowpack has bumped up to 70-100% of normal.

Related on MyNorthwest: Thunderstorm season underway in the Pacific Northwest

The Spring Equinox

The spring equinox will occur at 2:01 a.m. Thursday morning. Days are gaining about 3.5 minutes per day. Monday also marks the rise of daylight hours to more than 12 hours for the first time this year. By late June, when the summer solstice occurs, daylight hours will reach the year’s high point at nearly 16 hours.

According to the calendar, spring begins on Thursday this week, but the weather points to a winter season hangover. Those longer days will eventually produce warmer, drier conditions if our patience can hang in there.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

Friday will bring scattered showers with some sun breaks at times in the wake of an earlier weather system. Then, a pair of systems is expected to move ashore, bringing rain at times on both Saturday and Sunday. Interior total rainfall amounts should range from a half-inch to just over an inch. Breezy conditions are anticipated as well on Saturday, with wind speeds up to 30 mph.

This is a cool weather pattern, and high temperatures will be about five degrees cooler than mid-March averages. Highs through the weekend are forecast to range from the mid-40s to lower 50s, with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s.

More on MyNorthwest: How to watch the stunning ‘blood moon’ lunar eclipse tonight

We’ll also get snow – in the mountains

The cool, soggy weather pattern will also produce much-needed snow in the mountains. The current mountain snowpack is below average, with the North and Central Cascades at about 75-100% of normal. The water equivalent in the snowpack ranges from only 60-75% of average.

Mountain snow totals this weekend will likely pile up to one to two feet of fresh snow. Motorists heading into the Cascades for fun in the snow or crossing over into Eastern Washington need to be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions, with snow coming down heavily at times. Carry chains (state law) and be ready to use them if required. Snow levels will be below the passes, including Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass, hovering between 1,500 and 2,500 feet.

The new snow will also elevate the threat of avalanches. Those heading into the backcountry for skiing or on snowmobiles need to use the buddy system, avoid avalanche-prone areas, and have personal emergency signal devices at hand. Be sure to check the latest avalanche conditions from the .

Many have outdoor plans this weekend, so be prepared for soggy, cool weather conditions. Sunday, March 15, is the Ides of March, and the weather will likely feel like it.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

Thunderstorms can occur at any time of the year, but the Pacific Northwest’s thunderstorm season peaks twice within a calendar year – spring and fall — with spring being the primary season.

Thanks to longer days, temperatures near the surface are warmer in the spring than during the winter. Yet, cooler air aloft continues to move onshore from the Gulf of Alaska, creating an unstable air mass or rising air – much like boiling water on your stove. This scenario will be the case on Thursday this week with the threat of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Western Washington averages only about 10 thunderstorms per year. In contrast, central Florida has more than 100 thunderstorms annually.

More on MyNorthwest: Will weather cooperate or block the total lunar eclipse on Thursday?

What to do when caught in a thunderstorm

From the Rockies eastward, people are rather lightning proficient – heading indoors when a thunderstorm approaches. Since Western Washington does not get thunderstorms often, many people are unaware and get caught outdoors when lightning strikes.

This region’s thunderstorms are usually short-lived, less than 30 minutes. Some thunderstorms in this area are what some call “one clap wonders.” If a cold rain or hail shower approaches, it could produce lightning. Head indoors or get into a vehicle. Avoid tall targets like trees, athletic field light poles, or outdoor seating areas. Lightning likes to strike tall objects, and that is where many lightning injuries and fatalities occur.

More on MyNorthwest: Should we worry about recent Washington earthquakes? Expert explains

Fortunately, Washington has not had a lightning fatality since 1996. Let’s keep it that way. Remember – when thunder roars, go indoors.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

During a total lunar eclipse, the Earth moves directly between the sun and the moon, blocking sunlight from reaching the moon. This causes the moon to take on a deep red-orange hue, often called a “Blood Moon.”

The eclipse begins at 10:10 P.M. as the Earth moves in front of the moon. The total eclipse will be reached at 11:25 P.M., with the maximum eclipse occurring just before midnight. The total eclipse phase ends at 12:30 A.M. on March 14th, and the partial eclipse concludes shortly after 1:45 A.M.

The last lunar total eclipse in the region occurred on November 8, 2022. A significant and much more memorable total lunar eclipse happened on the night of January 31, 2018. This was the second full moon of the month, making it a “blue moon,” but it was also a super moon, meaning the moon was closer to Earth in its orbit around the planet, and to top it off, it was also a total lunar eclipse. Some called this event a “super blue blood moon.”

Related from MyNorthwest: Eerie ‘blood moon’ to illuminate Washington skies in first total lunar eclipse in over 2 years

Will the weather cooperate?

The big question is whether the skies will be clear enough to view the eclipse. The best chance to see this event will come during breaks in the clouds between scattered showers.

After a wet weekend, Monday will bring diminishing showers. Another Pacific storm system will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing additional rain. A cool, unsettled air mass will follow, producing scattered showers and occasional cloud breaks—offering a possible viewing window for the eclipse on Wednesday night.

Showers will persist into Thursday before another system brings more rain on Friday.

Temperatures this week are anticipated to be close to 5 degrees below mid-March average readings, with highs close to 50 degrees through Thursday, and then only in the 40s Friday. Lows will generally be cool, in the 30s to lower 40s.����

More mountain snow��

The cool conditions means mountain snow levels will remain below Cascade highway pass levels. Snow is expected above about 1500 to 2500 feet throughout the week. Motorists crossing the Cascades should be prepared for winter weather driving conditions.����

During the course of the week, overall new snow amounts should rack up one to three feet with the higher amounts across the more elevated terrain like the volcanoes. This fresh snow should also help make up more ground on the currently below average mountain snowpack, good news for skiers as well as water supply and wildfire authorities.����

With the change to Daylight Saving Time now in the rear view mirror, sunsets are now past 7 P.M. Enjoy the longer daylight evenings, even if those hours may be wet.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

A series of weak weather systems moving ashore from the Pacific will provide the light precipitation and cooler conditions through Wednesday. By Thursday, higher pressure aloft is forecast to build over the region, delivering some sunshine and drier weather.

Temperatures this week will be much cooler—about 10 degrees or so cooler—than they were during the recent sunshine and glimpse of spring weather. Highs across Western Washington are expected to rise only into the lower 50s, with lows ranging from the 30s to lower 40s, a few degrees lower than early March averages.

The cooler conditions this week will extend into the mountains as well. Snow levels are anticipated to start the week near 4,000 feet and gradually decline to between 2,000 and 3,000 feet from Tuesday through Friday. The mountain snowpack is running about 70 to 90 percent of average for early March. Snowfall amounts this week are expected to total only a few inches.

More from Ted Buehner: How 11 feet of snow led to America’s deadliest avalanche near Stevens Pass in 1910

Almost four minutes of extra daytime

The days continue to get longer, gaining about 3 ½ minutes per day. The first 6 PM sunset of the year will occur on Wednesday evening. This is also the final week on Pacific Standard Time. Clocks “spring forward” this coming Sunday morning as Pacific Daylight Time begins, meaning sunsets will be after 7 PM next week.

Likely no surprise given the four-week-plus cold snap, but weather statistics for the month of February were cooler than average. Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) ended up being about 3 ½ degrees below normal for the month. Bellingham finished just over 4 ½ degrees cooler. Olympia and Everett were close to 1.5 degrees cooler, while the coast ended the month close to 2 ½ degrees cooler than average.

Total February rainfall results were mixed. SEA and Olympia were just over a quarter of an inch drier than average, while Bellingham was a half-inch wetter than average.

The coming weekend looks like it will be a wet one as a more powerful, soggy weather system moves onshore. The latest weather outlook into mid-March also points toward a cool and wet period—actually good news for helping build the mountain snowpack closer to its seasonal average.

Following the old weather folklore that dates back to the 18th century, March came in like a lamb. If the extended weather outlook for the rest of March is on track, the month will go out like a lion.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

After 19 weeks on Pacific Standard Time (PST), we return to Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) this Sunday. On Sunday, March 9, we ‘spring forward’ an hour at 2 a.m. early that morning.

The time change has found an increase in traffic crashes and workplace injuries on the day after “spring forward” compared to other Mondays. Even though the gets disrupted by time changes, the impacts fade away in a matter of days, similar to jet lag when flying overseas or from one coast to another.

The Washington state legislature authorized keeping the state on daylight time in 2019, and Oregon and California have as well. However, only the U.S. Congress can authorize one or more states to stay either permanently in daylight time. In recent years, Senator Murray has led several efforts to have the Senate pass the In 2021, it passed the Senate by unanimous vote, but the bill never made it to the floor of the House of Representatives.

More from MyNorthwest: Stormy weekend helps shrink rain deficit in Western Washington — But is it enough?

Daylight Saving Time may soon be ending in western states

Another option is to remain permanently on Standard time. Two states, Arizona and Hawaii, already do this, and that switch does not require U.S. Congressional action. In recent years, a few bills that went before the state legislature would have kept the state permanently on Standard Time, but they all failed to advance. The legislators are now leading this effort by coordinating with neighboring western U.S. states to collectively enact this permanent Standard Time authorization.

There is great debate on the pros and cons of permanent Standard Time. For instance, human health follows the sun, and Standard Time shadows the natural circadian cycle. If Standard Time became permanent, then around the summer solstice in June, sunrise in Washington would be near 4 a.m. and sunset around 8 p.m. Proponents of permanent Daylight Time highlight the longer summer evening hours for more outdoor activities and decreased crime.

There are many more arguments on both sides of the Standard versus Daylight Time debate, but what is far more apparent is that a high percentage of Americans want to stop the twice a year time changes.

More from MyNorthwest: What is the winter solstice and why does it matter?

It’s a good time to change the batteries

But because we will be switching to PDT for at least another year, fire agencies and the National Weather Service want to remind us that the time change is also a good time to change the batteries in your smoke and carbon dioxide detectors and your NOAA Weather Radios. Too many fatal fire tragedies occur because smoke detectors have dead batteries. Your all-hazard NOAA Weather Radios also need to operate when the power goes out and provide reliable all-hazards warning information.

This Saturday night, remember to move your clocks ahead one hour. Your cell phones and computers should automatically change the time.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. You can read more of Ted’s stories��here��and follow him on��.

The rain that was soaked up by the snowpack below the snow level increased the weight of the snow, particularly on steeper slopes. This situation raised avalanche danger.

Coincidentally, March 1st marks the date of the nation’s deadliest avalanche in American history that occurred 115 years ago near Stevens Pass, back in 1910.

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What led to America’s deadliest avalanche

In the days leading up to that fateful and tragic day, a lot of snow fell in the region. On one day alone in late February, 11 feet of snow fell. Then the weather turned warmer with rain, adding more weight to all that fresh snow on the slopes.

Along the Great Northern Rail Line, snowplows could not keep up with all that heavy snowfall. Two trains, both bound to Seattle from Spokane, were trapped just beyond the west portal of Stevens Pass rail tunnel at the depot town of Wellington.

Early in the morning of March 1st, a thunderstorm unleashed a massive avalanche from the side of Windy Mountain, sending a wall of snow, a half a mile long and a quarter mile wide, down the slopes. The avalanche plowed through the depot and swept the two trains 150 feet down the hill into the Tye River valley. Ninety-six people were killed. Twenty-three survived.

Avalanches carry tremendous power

If planning to venture into the mountains for fun in the snow, be fully aware of avalanche conditions before you go. Visit the NW Avalanche Center’s web site at nwac.us for all the latest mountain and avalanche forecast conditions, and heed any avalanche warning information. In addition, be sure to use the buddy system and have all the appropriate avalanche gear when heading out into the backcountry.

April 1st is usually when the mountain snowpack reaches its peak. With less than a month to go, more snow is needed to reach the average snowpack that at this time, ranges from about 70 to 90 percent of normal.

The outlook for the rest of this month offers increased odds on cooler than average temperatures and tips the odds to wetter than average conditions. This outlook provides the opportunity for the mountain snowpack to play catch up to average by April 1st, good news for snow enthusiasts, as well as water supply and wildfire managers.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.

Heading into this past soggy weekend, the region was well behind average. (SEA) had just over 3 inches of rain, more than 5 inches or only 37% of normal. As of midnight Tuesday, the weekend’s rainfall of over 2 inches bumped the average for the year to 59%.

In the South Sound, Olympia had only about four and a half inches for the year leading into the weekend, close to a 7-inch deficit or about 40% of average. The current rainfall total is now close to 7 and a quarter inches or about 58% of average.

Bellingham and Hoquiam were a little better moving into the wet weekend, receiving just over 50% of average rainfall thus far this year. Today, Bellingham was up to 78% of average and Hoquiam 75%.

The usually quite wet region around Forks though was running just over 14 inches of rain behind or only about 37% of average heading into the weekend. This commonly damp community did make up some ground, yet not too much — now at about 45% of average rainfall for the year thus far.

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Looking at snow levels in Puget Sound region amid rain shortage

The greatest amount of precipitation over the weekend fell in the mountains. Unfortunately, snow levels climbed to just over 6,000 feet at times, not the best scenario for building the snowpack. The Olympics received 6 to 10 inches of precipitation, while the Cascades got between 4 and 8 and a half inches.

The Cascades from Snoqualmie Pass north to Mt. Baker had the greatest amount of new snowfall. According to statistics from the Northwest Avalanche Center, Mt. Baker added about a foot and a half of new snow to bring their total up to 137 inches on the ground. Alpental received close to 4 feet of new snow, raising their total to 107 inches of total snow.

The southern Cascades were not as fortunate, thanks in part to the higher snow levels. Crystal Mountain added nearly a foot to their snowpack, now at 96 inches. Paradise held steady at 154 inches on the ground and White Pass bumped its snow total by 5 inches to 110 total.

The water in the snowpack did rise a great deal over the weekend as the snowpack soaked up the rain that fell below the relatively high snow levels. The Olympics improved to just over 90% of average, while the North and Central Cascades rose to between about 70 to 85% while the South Cascades remained at nearly 110% of average.

The mountain snowpack usually peaks around April 1, leaving a month for additional catch-up. Unfortunately through this weekend, not much more precipitation is anticipated. A weak weather system moving into Oregon this weekend could produce a little light precipitation across parts of Western Washington and the mountains, if at all.

Looking forward well into next week and toward the middle of March, the latest weather outlook points toward about average temperatures and nudges the odds to above-average precipitation. For the sake of an adequate water supply this summer and fall, including the mountain snowpack, the latter half of March will need to be a cool and wet period.

Ted Buehner is the ����Xվ Newsradio meteorologist. Follow him on�������Ի���.