Betting on the election is now available, but don’t try it says the state
Oct 31, 2024, 6:11 PM | Updated: 7:30 pm
Want to bet on who will be the next president, the state of Washington’s next governor or if I-2117 the Climate Commitment Act” will be repealed?
The state’s gambling commission says don’t — it’s illegal in the state — despite claims by a new betting platform that it’s regulated and legal nationwide.
Kalshi is the first Federal Trade Commission-regulated prediction site. Last week, it won a long legal battle to accept online bets.
The platform has received $130 million in bets, or 鈥渢rades,鈥� by Thursday on the presidential election alone. Currently, a $100 bet on a Trump win would pay out $169, while Harris would pay $238, making Trump the moneyline favorite and a Harris win the riskier bet.
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In the race for Washington state governor, Kalshi鈥檚 odds are 13-1 that Republican underdog Dave Reichert will defeat Democrat Bob Ferguson. In the toss-up race for the 3rd Congressional District, Kalshi lists Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez as a slight underdog, with 6-5 odds of beating Republican Joe Kent.
Regarding Washington鈥檚 I-2117, Kalshi鈥檚 odds favor keeping the Climate Commitment Act; betting on its repeal has a payout of 5-1.
Kalshi鈥檚 CEO, Tarek Mansour, has been promoting the site on business shows, highlighting how its structure is legal in every state under a recent appeals court decision.
The ruling allows Kalshi to operate only in the United States and accept U.S. dollars from only U.S. participants. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 allow anyone outside the country to participate,鈥� Mansour told Fox Business.
Kalshi is a U.S.-based regulated betting exchange, or as the company calls it, a 鈥減rediction market,鈥� that operates similarly to Wall Street鈥檚 commodity market. According to Mansour, participants buy or sell contracts based on their confidence in a particular outcome, which offers an alternative to traditional polling data.
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鈥淭he beauty of these markets is that people have skin in the game, with money on the line, making this forecast. When money is involved,鈥� says Mansour, 鈥渢he predictions are more accurate than polls, where people might lie.鈥�
Proponents argue that Kalshi鈥檚 data can provide real-time insights into public sentiment, though critics worry about potential risks to election integrity.
Kalshi鈥檚 trading platform is open to everyday users and large financial players, with some bets reaching up to $100 million on election results. The maximum bet without financial vetting by the company is $7 million.
However, there’s one big problem.
鈥淭hey are not legal,鈥� Washington State Gambling Commission Director of Communications Troy Kirby said.
Despite Kalshi鈥檚 claims that the FTC oversees its betting market, it is still considered gambling in Washington鈥檚 eyes.
鈥淭he illegal component is that there鈥檚 a consideration, money involved,鈥� Kirby explained. 鈥淚f you decide to take that chance, it鈥檚 at your own risk.鈥�
Kirby said that the state is more likely to penalize Washington residents participating in the bets rather than Kalshi itself, which operates outside the state.
Even losing a bet doesn鈥檛 exempt residents, as the intent to gain something still constitutes a violation.
In Washington, the only online betting in the state can take place at the tribal casinos or through casino apps in close proximity to the casino.
鈥淣o other online gambling, in any form that offers a consideration, is allowed,鈥� Kirby said.
He explained Kalshi’s platform is still betting even though it functionally operates like a commodity market where buyers and sellers trade contracts based on what’s going to happen in the future.
Mansour emphasized to Fox Business that Kalshi should not be equated with sports betting sites like DraftKings.
鈥淥ur markets are stable, regulated, and transparent. Every trade is reported, and we know who鈥檚 trading. It鈥檚 not anonymous, not crypto-based, and all trades are reported to the federal government.鈥�
And Kalshi does not take sports bets.
Matt Markovich covers politics and public affairs for 成人X站 Newsradio and MyNorthwest.
