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When the first two rounds of 10% tariffs hit, Zou Guoqing, a Chinese exporter, groaned but didn’t find the barriers insurmountable. He gave up some of his profits and offered his client, a snow-bike factory in Nebraska, price cuts ranging from 5% to 10%. It seemed to work: The factory agreed to a new order of molds and parts.

But when President Donald Trump announced an additional 34% universal tariff on Chinese goods on April 2, Zou, who鈥檚 been exporting to the U.S. for more than a decade, was incredulous.

鈥淭here’s not a thread of feasibility,” said Zou, who does business in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo. 鈥淚t looks like I would have no choice but give up trading with the U.S.鈥�

Then came 50% more from Trump, followed by another hike 鈥� pushing the universal tariff on Chinese goods to the sky-high 145%, and Zou said he now could only hope that the two leaders can communicate. 鈥淲e are pausing the shipments,” he said, 鈥渦ntil the leaders talk.鈥�

The 145% tariff from the United States and the retaliatory 125% tariff from China are putting businesses doing trade between the U.S. and China on edge. They’re fretting not only about their next orders, but also the viability of their business if there’s no quick relief. Experts are worried the decades-long trade ties that have underpinned the relationship between the world’s two largest economies could be unraveling.

Trade ties are tested

If the high tariff is sustained for the next six months or longer, 鈥渢hat would actually lead to a real effective decoupling between the American and Chinese economies,鈥� said Chen Zhiwu, professor of finance at Hong Kong University Business School.

Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council鈥檚 GeoEconomics Center, said the sky-high tariff, if kept in place, amounts to 鈥渁lmost a trade embargo,鈥� making it impossible for China to export low-value items such as apparel to the U.S. It also would force U.S. businesses to source elsewhere, away from China, if there should be alternatives, he said.

In China, the central tariff office flat-out declared there was 鈥渘o possibility for market acceptance” of U.S. goods exported to China鈥� at the current tariff level.

鈥淓veryone鈥檚 pretty worried,鈥� said Hu Jianlong, founder of Brands Factory, a consultancy that works with Chinese companies trying to break into overseas markets. 鈥淎t this point in time, there鈥檚 no good way forward. This situation has not resolved … there’s no final number. And so everyone鈥檚 still waiting to see how this will develop.鈥�

The high-stakes tariff war has come more than 20 years after China 鈥� with the help of the United States 鈥� joined the World Trade Organization and began to see its economy soar on luring foreign investments and exporting to the U.S. and other Western markets. By last year, China-U.S. trade was $582 billion, but tensions have flared over China’s widening trade imbalance with the U.S. That led to the first tariff skirmish during the first Trump term.

The trade deficit has since narrowed but stayed stubbornly high, at a time when the U.S. and other Western markets have also grown concerned about another onslaught of Chinese products such as electric vehicles.

Decouple or 鈥榙e-risk鈥�?

During his four-year term, former President Joe Biden stressed that the U.S. was not trying to decouple from China but to 鈥渄e-risk.” He took the 鈥渟mall-yard, high-fence鈥� approach, under which his administration put up barriers in targeted sectors such as advanced chips, artificial intelligence and quantum computing that have national security implications.

Now, Trump is declaring universal tariffs on all Chinese goods but has said he’s also willing to talk with Beijing. It remains unclear what his goals might be.

鈥淲hat are they looking for in those negotiations? How much is it possible to reduce these tariffs? What are the other demands apart from China removing its retaliatory tariffs that the United States wants to put forward. We don’t know what that would be,鈥� said Greta Peisch, who served as the general counsel for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in 2021-2024.

The message from China’s leadership is loud and clear. It will talk only when the U.S. stops 鈥渕aximum pressure and capricious and destructive behavior,” said Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

Li Cheng, professor of political science at the University of Hong Kong, said the Chinese leadership is upset over being singled out by Trump when the U.S. president paused 鈥渞eciprocal鈥� tariffs for 90 days for all other countries. Beijing wants to make sure that 鈥淒onald Trump not state one thing in the morning and say other things in the evening,” Li said, and that Trump’s policies on China are not hijacked by his anti-China, hawkish advisers.

With no leadership-level negotiations in the immediate future, businesses are exploring their options.

Lisa Li, who works in sales for an athletic wear manufacturer in the northern Chinese province of Hebei, said her business was negotiating with clients over whether they could split the increased costs. It’s too early to say if her company is to give up on the U.S. market, she said, but it will 鈥渄efinitely expand other avenues for sales,鈥� such as in Australia or Europe.

Differing views, but optimism is sagging

In the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou, a manufacturing hub, a holiday lights maker was less optimistic. Bo, who shared only his surname out of concern for retaliation, said he could 鈥渙nly give up鈥� if the tariff hikes were here to stay because other markets might not work.

鈥淚n the past few years, the European market has been in a slump,鈥� Bo said. 鈥淪o we had wanted to try and develop our business in the United States.鈥�

In Hong Kong, Danny Lau, who runs an aluminum-coating factory in the nearby southern Chinese city of Dongguan, said one of his U.S clients would keep buying from him for an ongoing project but was unsure about the next project. Another client told Lau that the chances are slim to strike a deal when tariffs are so high. Lau has been exploring other markets, but he says it’s not easy because some may find his high-quality products too expensive.

At a port in the Chinese city of Shanghai, ships heading to the U.S. had almost vanished by Thursday, the day after Trump’s tariff on China took effect, according to a report by the financial news site Caixin. Major shipping lines were drastically cutting back on trans-Pacific routes, the report said.

For the longer term, the tariff war is likely to prompt Chinese businesses to diversify their supply chains and move part of their manufacturing capacity outside of China, and even to the United States, said Hu, the consultant.

Some might follow in the footsteps of the Tianjin steelmaking business, which gave up trading with the U.S. after both Trump and Biden raised tariffs on Chinese steel. 鈥淭he best plan is to not come into contact,鈥� said David Yu, who works in the company’s foreign sales department.

However, not everyone is ready to give up on the U.S. market. Zou, the exporter in Ningbo, describes the U.S. market as 鈥渞eliable and without finicky demands.鈥�

鈥淚t’s the best market on Earth,鈥� he said. “I am waiting for the rainbow after the storm.鈥�

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Wu reported from Bangkok and Tang from Washington. AP researcher Shihuan Chen in Beijing and writer Kanis Leung in Hong Kong contributed to this report.